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Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India

หน่วยงาน National Institute Of Oceanography (NIO), India

รายละเอียด

ชื่อเรื่อง : Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India
นักวิจัย : Srinivas, K. , Revichandran, C. , DineshKumar, P.K.
คำค้น : sea surface temperature , EWMA
หน่วยงาน : National Institute Of Oceanography (NIO), India
ผู้ร่วมงาน : -
ปีพิมพ์ : 2546
อ้างอิง : Indian Journal of Marine Sciences, vol.32(4), 285-293p. , http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/414
ที่มา : -
ความเชี่ยวชาญ : -
ความสัมพันธ์ : -
ขอบเขตของเนื้อหา : -
บทคัดย่อ/คำอธิบาย :

Three different statistical forecasting techniques - autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) were used to forecast monthly values of meteorological and oceanographic (met-ocean) parameters viz. sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, rainfall, relative density and sea level, in the Cochin estuarine system. The EWMA technique (which yields forecast with a lead time of only one month) gave the lowest root mean square errors relative to the verifying observations. Atmospheric pressure could be forecast with less than 5% of error while SST and air temperature with less than 10% of error, by all the three techniques. 80% of the time, sea level could be forecast with less than 10% error, by each of the three techniques. However, wind speed, relative density and rainfall could not be forecast by any of the three techniques with any acceptable degree of accuracy.

บรรณานุกรม :
Srinivas, K. , Revichandran, C. , DineshKumar, P.K. . (2546). Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India.
    : National Institute Of Oceanography (NIO), India.
Srinivas, K. , Revichandran, C. , DineshKumar, P.K. . 2546. "Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India".
    : National Institute Of Oceanography (NIO), India.
Srinivas, K. , Revichandran, C. , DineshKumar, P.K. . "Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India."
    : National Institute Of Oceanography (NIO), India, 2546. Print.
Srinivas, K. , Revichandran, C. , DineshKumar, P.K. . Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India. : National Institute Of Oceanography (NIO), India; 2546.