This study aims to examine various relationships between the national healthexpenditure and the macroeconomic conditions, and analyze the structure of healthexpenditure under different scenarios. This study adopted and little modified the SimFin model (Carrin 1998) by usingChinese data in 1990 to 1995. By running this model, health expenditure was estimated at both current pricesand constant prices. From the simulation result, it was found that the structure ofChina health expenditure, and the share of government health expenditure in totalhealth expenditure would decrease slowly in the period of 1999 to 2005. With theinsurance scheme implemented, the high growth rate of the private expenditure sharein the China total health expenditure would be controlled. Due to uncertainties ofthe future, the estimation used were under 4 scenarios to analyze the healthexpenditure structures. These scenarios represented likely alternative conditions ofmacroeconomic variable movements and health expenditure variables. Two scenarios ofmacroeconomic variable movements were assumed: the low economic growth rate scenario,and the high consumer price index with high private health expenditure scenario. Theother two scenarios for health expenditure variables were also assumed, those are thehigh government health expenditure growth and the high private health expendituregrowth. Based on analysis above, some policy implications and limitations of this studywere discussed.